Economics

"We lack the stores that people can go buy just everyday goods. We have nowhere to buy shoes. It's hard for a small town merchant to compete with a Walmart within 15 miles."
- Service Provider

The economy of any area is an interesting mix of people, business, and opportunity. Warrenton is no different. Therefore, this section brings a variety of topics together under the theme of economics to demonstrate the economic potential or economic stagnation of Warrenton, depending on what you read or to whom you talk.

Secondary Data

Economy, to some degree, is a function of the people in an area and their education level. Specifically, the education level of an area may influence the available jobs and business opportunities. According to the 1990 census, the percentage of people in Warrenton with at most a high school education is 57%, compared to 26% who had some form of post secondary education. Additionally, the percentage of people with less than high school education is greater than the percentage of people with education past the high school level. Finally, educational discrepancies are greatest between Whites and African-Americans. Specifically, the 1990 census shows 46% of African-Americans in Warrenton have less than high school education, compared to only 21% of Whites. Overall, the education level in Warrenton, coupled with these racial discrepancies, may impact the economy.

In addition to the people who live in Warrenton, the makeup of the area's workforce and industry also affects the economy. As of February 2001, the unemployment rate in Warren County was 9.1%, compared to a state rate, as of July 2000, of only 3.2% (NC Department of Commerce, Economic Policy). In terms of industry statistics, 2000 first quarter statistics from the NC Department of Commerce show that government, manufacturing, and service account for 73% of Warren County's workforce. In contrast, Warrenton-specific data from the 1990 census show professional and related services (health, educational, and other professional/related services) account for 25% of the workforce, while manufacturing and retail trade account for 24% and 17% of the workforce respectively. Since manufacturing is the second largest industry in Warren County and in Warrenton, it is important to note that 11 of the 20 largest manufacturers in Warren County are located in Warrenton, employing approximately 660 people (NC Department of Commerce, Economic Policy).

In order for an area's economy to grow, the capacity for growth and development must exist. The 1999 NC Economic Development Scan (NC Department of Commerce) presents a development capacity checklist comprised of 11 indicators. Table 1 shows which indicators Warren County has, and which indicators the county does not have.

Table 1. Economic Indicators

Overall, Warren County has 7 of the 11 indicators, which shows moderate capacity for growth and development according to this source. In contrast to this data, information from the Research Triangle Regional Partnership (RTRP) show that Warren County experienced only small spurts of growth throughout the 1990's compared to other counties in RTRP (2000). (RTRP summarizes statistics on 13 counties in the Research Triangle region: Chatham, Durham, Franklin, Granville, Harnett, Johnston, Lee, Moore, Orange, Person, Vance, Wake, and Warren.) Collectively, this information implies that, while Warren County may have the potential for growth and development, there is a lack of financial investment to promote growth and development.

New business rate is another indicator of growth and development. Warren County has an extremely low new business rate according to the 1999 NC Economic Development Scan (NC Department of Commerce). Specifically, Warren County has a score of 2 in terms of new business rate, and a score of 34 in terms of business failure rate (scores range from 1 to 100 with 1 being lowest and 100 being highest). In concert with this data is information on gross retail sales. According to the RTRP, Warren County gross retail sales in 1999 totaled $69,904,000 compared to $487,205,000 in nearby Vance County. This data further indicates that business and industry growth and development are deficient in Warren County The final economic indicators reviewed in this document are income and poverty. According to the NC Department of Commerce, Warren County is ranked as follows: 1) 98th (out of 100 counties) in per capita personal income, which in 1998 was $15,874; 2) 97th in median family income, which in 2000 was $29,300; and 3) 86th in average weekly earnings, which in first quarter 2000 was $397. Information from RTRP also indicates low wage rates in Warren County. Specifically, the average annual manufacturing wage listed for Warren County is $18,343 compared to $22,187 in neighboring Vance County. In fact, all wages are lower in Warren County than in Vance County, with the exception of agriculture, state, and local government wages (RTRP, 2000). Data from the 1990 census show that 19% of Warren County's workforce is employed outside the county. These statistics suggest people are leaving Warrenton and Warren County to find better paying jobs.

Closely linked to income is poverty. In 1995, the poverty rate in Warren County was 23.9% compared to the state rate of 13.1%. In Warrenton, 1990 census data show the poverty rate at 13.9%. For all age categories, with the exception of people 75 years and older, there is a greater percentage of African-Americans in poverty than Whites in Warren County.

Overall, secondary data related to the economy of Warrenton and Warren County show a lack of economic development and the impact this deficiency has on individuals and the county as a whole. The following presents community member and service provider perspectives in relation to the economy of the area, and how these perceptions relate to the secondary data.

Community Member Perspective

In contrast to the economic boom that once embraced Warrenton, the town has seen a decline in the prosperity it once knew. While secondary data support this decline, the perspective of community members adds another dimension to the theme of economics.

In general, community members discussed two issues related to economics: retail development and lack of job opportunities. Throughout community member focus groups, the mantra "We have no stores" was repeatedly heard. According to one community member who has lived in Warren County her entire life, the county had department stores, four tobacco warehouses, a bowling alley, and a skating rink over 30 years ago. None of these places exists in Warren County anymore.

While some community members remember the days when Warren County had places like skating rinks, community members were quick to list the businesses they do not have in Warren County today, including a hospital, department store, bowling alley, other forms of entertainment, and shoe store. Community members feel they must go to Vance County for "shopping and everything." One community member said, "Right now it's more dead than ever. It was booming. We had…lots of stores…". Community members attribute this loss of retail outlets to the development of stores in Henderson, and the pull out of industry from Warren County.

Although Warren County lacks retail development, it does have a variety of antique shops. Many community members believe there are too many antique stores and feel they are expensive and do not contribute to Warrenton's economy because they are for visitors and not for Warrentonians. The phrase, "There are no jobs" was also heard on more than one occasion. Some community members felt people need to leave Warrenton to find good paying jobs, and one community member believed, "You have to be prepared here not to get a good job, not get paid much, commute, or take a job you're not trained for."

Another perspective related to lack of job opportunities in Warrenton was based on development that occurred outside the county and its affect on the area. One community member felt that the creation of two interstates on either side of the county took all of the jobs and businesses out of Warrenton because "people don't have to go through here unless they want to." Another community member reflected a similar sentiment related to the movement of jobs and businesses out of Warren County by saying, "When [Warren County residents] work out of town, they spend their money out of town." This person felt this shift of resources and money negatively affected the economies of Warrenton and Warren County.

Lack of job opportunities also impacts the future of Warren County according to many community members. Specifically, community members believed young people "all want to get out of here" and "kids dream about leaving." One community member said, "Personally when my kids get out of high school, I'll tell them don't stay here because there's nothing here." This was not a recurring sentiment among community members. Rather, people talked about how to keep youth in Warren County, or how to get them to come back after college. While the community members included in these discussions did not develop specific ways to keep youth in Warren County, some people believed job opportunities other than factory work were needed to attract young people, and others believed youth need something to come back to after going to college.

Service Provider Perspective

Similar to the community member perspective, service providers primarily addressed retail development, lack of job opportunities, and poverty when discussing the economics of the area. The need for more retail development was a sentiment heard not only from community members, but also service providers. For example, providers, like community members, had a wish list of retail outlets they wanted including a shoe store, more restaurants, a hotel/motel, and movie theater. Overall, providers believed lack of retail development was a problem for Warrenton and the entire county. One provider said, "The lack of shopping opportunities. To me that's our worst disadvantage." Along those same lines, another provider equated the lack of shopping opportunities with a loss of revenue that could be generated from sales tax. Overall, providers felt the area of retail development could improve the economies of Warrenton and Warren County.

Providers and community members agree Warrenton and Warren County lack job opportunities. One provider said there were not enough good jobs immediately surrounding Warrenton, and most people go outside the county to find jobs in Raleigh, Vance County, and Rocky Mount.

The idea that jobs in Warrenton and Warren County are inadequate was another theme associated with lack of job opportunities. Overall, there is no high-paying industry in the county, only minimum-wage industry. One provider described this situation as "high underemployment." Other providers took a somewhat different perspective on this issue. They believed the lack of high-paying jobs and large companies was a consequence of education not matching present day job needs and of an overall lack of job skills in the area.

Although most providers felt Warrenton and Warren County lacked job opportunities and the industry to improve this situation, some providers saw the area as ready for growth and development. One provider said, "There are so many avenues yet to be explored for development." Another provided explained how the infrastructure at Soul City allows Warrenton to run at twice its current water and sewage capacity, which could entice industry into the area.

While there may be growth potential in Warrenton and Warren County, providers still have some doubts about its impact. One provider believed that even if businesses come in and bring jobs, they would probably bring in their own executives and only hire low-level, blue-collar jobs from the community. From this perspective, even growth and development in Warrenton and Warren County may not benefit residents in the area

The final economics topic discussed among providers was poverty. According to one provider, "That's [Warren County's] biggest issue I believe is its poverty." Other providers spoke of a general sense of malaise in the area and described people whose energy is "squashed" and do not think about how to get out of poverty. While these providers described how poverty affects people, another provider talked about how poverty shapes the county: "As long as you've got a mentality as a whole county that handouts are good, that handouts are the way we should maintain our economics, you won't be able to pull in new industry and you won't be able to improve your economics." This provider's perspective links poverty with factors like unemployment, lack of job experience, and lack of jobs, and places the responsibility for change in the hands of individuals and larger government systems. Although poverty and its impact were topics of discussion among providers, there were no easy solutions to this issue.

Summary

Overall, community member perspectives and the perspectives of providers were closely aligned when it came to the topic of economics in Warrenton and Warren County. Retail development and lack of job opportunities were two areas both community members and providers believe Warrenton faces. The secondary data support these topics as well. Lack of retail development impacts the revenue that can be generated for the town and county via sales and property taxes also makes it difficult for people to get the every day goods and services they need and want.

In terms of job opportunities, perspectives from both community members and service providers is also supported by secondary data. Specifically, new industry investments were mediocre compared to surrounding counties, Warren County has the second highest new business failure rate in the state, and unemployment in Warren County is currently more than double the state unemployment rate.

The only economics topic specifically addressed by service providers was poverty. Providers discussed how poverty impacts the people of Warrenton and Warren County, and how a mentality of poverty impacts the county as a whole. Some community members said Warren County is a poor county, but did not address poverty in the detail that providers did. Again, secondary data support the belief that poverty is an issue in Warrenton and Warren County with a Warrenton poverty rate of 13.9% in 1990, and a Warren County poverty rate of 23.9% in 1995 (U.S. Census, 1990; NC Department of Commerce, Economic Policy).

All in all, the community members and service providers included in this project agree that Warrenton and Warren County need more retail development to boost the economy and give people access to every day goods and services. Additionally, Warrenton and Warren County need more job opportunities so people can work where they live, and earn a decent living to support themselves and their families.

Introduction to Themes

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Education